Nissan Leaf - The Answer to Peak Oil ?

Rodge · 28-11-2011, 03:52 PM

Was surprised to learn the Nissan Leaf's release is actually very close and saw one at a Big Biys Toy's show here last weekend. No pricing yet.

Here's a review:-
http://www.nissan.co.nz/data/press_a...20Oct%2011.pdf

Reviewed a really depressing lengthy dissitation from one of the world's foremost experts, can post a link but its 46 minutes of ultra depressing stuff, so trust me you don't want to see it, but Peak Oil is something that can't be ignored, I reckon we're allready in the early stages of it.

So is the Nissan Leaf part of the answer ? What do you think of it ?

Could update the wife's Honda Civic hybrid with one and maybe use it from time to time and cut the fuel bills down but at what cost. Early adopters to pay quite a premium for this new technology, is it worth it ?? Remember when plasma TV's were $17,000 ?

Poetic Justice · 28-11-2011, 04:10 PM

I understand appreciate what they are trying to do with these types of cars, but on a day to day level unless I'm a wealthy do-gooding tree hugger there is zero financial benefit to spending $50k on a car that saves fuel when there are normal petrol variants available for such a low price.

flappist · 28-11-2011, 04:10 PM

Zero emissions.....yeh that coal stuff does not make any....

In saying that this is a govco nightmare......how do they tax the fuel?

irish2 · 28-11-2011, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flappist

Zero emissions.....yeh that coal stuff does not make any....

In saying that this is a govco nightmare......how do they tax the fuel?

There is tax on power mate, and soon to be even more.

Rodge · 28-11-2011, 04:26 PM

Flappist, yeah doesn't make a lot of sense with coal generation but wind, solar and dare I say it more nuke power stations, (but after the accident at Fukashima in Japan does anyone really want to hear about that ??

Makes more sense in N.Z. where circa 80% of power is from environmentally friendly sources, mainly hydro.

Road user charges for diesel cars are currently approx $470 per 10,000km's in N.Z. Electric cars will be subject to the same regime but exempt till June 2013, (that date may be extended), to encourage early adopters.

Price indication from what I've heard in N.Z. is high 50's - low 60's = approx late 40K ish Aussie. Release date could be as early as late next month or January 2012 in N.Z. Just realised a major problem for me though. Due to charging requirements it would need to be accomodated in the garage which means my daily would have to be relegated to being parked outside in the rain

aussie muscle · 29-11-2011, 08:49 AM

If people are worried about replacing the batteries, then don't buy one second hand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rodge

Makes more sense in N.Z. where circa 80% of power is from environmentally friendly sources, mainly hydro.

NZ should use geothermal, since you're basically sitting on an active fault, all those steam vents i saw would make lots of 'green power'.

Rodge · 29-11-2011, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussie muscle

If people are worried about replacing the batteries, then don't buy one second hand.

NZ should use geothermal, since you're basically sitting on an active fault, all those steam vents i saw would make lots of 'green power'.

Yeah we do mate, there's lots of geothermal allready.

Hyundai have been working on Lithium Polymer batteries for several years which are reported to be superior to Lithium-ion in many ways. They're a company making giant strides in the automotive world and it'll be interesting to see how they go.

jpd80 · 29-11-2011, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussie muscle

If people are worried about replacing the batteries, then don't buy one second hand.

As far as I know, not one Prius in Australia has had its battery pack replaced,
taxis love them and the fuel savings in the first 18 months covers the hybrid's premium,
after that it's cash in the bank...

I'm hoping Ford's EcoLPi wins back a lot of the market, perhaps a future Falcon with
an LPG verson of the 2.0 Ecoboost engine will deliver even more compelling fuel savings...

**Polyal** · 28-11-2011, 04:29 PM

I actually did some study into them (wheel to well etc etc), and there will always be knockers, I went to a presentation with Nissan and nearly choked when I heard them say zero emissions..but its all marketing jumbo.

What I will say is that the Leaf IMO is the best attempt yet at a functional EV. Things will only get better so while its fair game to critique we need to keep an open mind.

If it takes vehicles such as these to enjoy proper cars on the weekends then I am all for it. If your daily commute is less than 100k's then there is no reason not to have a good look at it. IIRC they will come in at around $60k which is premium for its space etc, but at the moment its probably more of a moral choice than an economic one.

This is just another step, there is no golden bullet.

Rodge · 28-11-2011, 04:40 PM

Poyal - Apparently i'm not the only one with concerns, according to Nissan 95% of the Leaf's delivered to date have been leased !!

Problems I can forsee include :-
1. What's the resale likely to be in say four years when you want to move on to some newer and far better form of technology ?

2. Litihum Ion batteries are known not to hold their rated capacity as they age, so whilst the Leaf may be good for (ignoring Nissan's claim of 170 km's), say 100 km's when the battery pack is new, what's its real range in 3-5 years, 60-70 km's ??
( I predict this issue will be a goldmine for lawyers arguing customers rights under the Consumer protection laws, suitability for purpose and reasonable durability spring readily to mind) I refuse to believe that when customers having been told by Nissan their vehicles will do approximatly 170 km's find they'll only do about 70 km's, 3 years down the track, (this figure is pure speculation on my part), in the real world that lawsuits won't be rampant all over the world.

3. Have they really sorted the heat issue with these batteries, really, how can one be sure ??

4. Battery is guaranteed for 8 years, how much to replace if / when it dies shortly after warranty ?

5. Is the Volt coming just around the corner with its range extender (genset type system) a more practical alternative especially in light of point 2 above ??

Thoughts ?

**Polyal** · 28-11-2011, 07:12 PM

I dont understand why everyone gets so erky about it, simply put if you dont like it dont buy it, or even think about it. But rest assured there is going to come a time in which it will be a viable options\...at the moment hybrids have pathed the way.

EV's actually have a semi successful past, and at one point (yes a long time ago) actually out sold combustion engines in the US, they had battery change points and everything. Given he right circumstances they do work, but EV's and Hybrid simply do not suit everyone.

I currently do a 220km round trip for work/uni and obviously it would not suit me.

The Leaf is a proper option in the way that it offers zero emissions at the tail pipe, this less pollutants in the areas that generally have the worst smog issues...cities..they make sense there.

Like I said, in most cases I think EV's can compliment another vehicle very well, do your daily commute etc with an EV and have a Tez for the weekend getaway etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rodge

Poyal - Apparently i'm not the only one with concerns, according to Nissan 95% of the Leaf's delivered to date have been leased !!

Problems I can forsee include :-
1. What's the resale likely to be in say four years when you want to move on to some newer and far better form of technology ?

2. Litihum Ion batteries are known not to hold their rated capacity as they age, so whilst the Leaf may be good for (ignoring Nissan's claim of 170 km's), say 100 km's when the battery pack is new, what's its real range in 3-5 years, 60-70 km's ??
( I predict this issue will be a goldmine for lawyers arguing customers rights under the Consumer protection laws, suitability for purpose and reasonable durability spring readily to mind) I refuse to believe that when customers having been told by Nissan their vehicles will do approximatly 170 km's find they'll only do about 70 km's, 3 years down the track, (this figure is pure speculation on my part), in the real world that lawsuits won't be rampant all over the world.

3. Have they really sorted the heat issue with these batteries, really, how can one be sure ??

4. Battery is guaranteed for 8 years, how much to replace if / when it dies shortly after warranty ?

5. Is the Volt coming just around the corner with its range extender (genset type system) a more practical alternative especially in light of point 2 above ??

Thoughts ?

Ok I am certainly no expert so dont take what I say as gospel, but for the above.

1. Thats impossible to say to begin with, should it be any better or worse than a IC car? Dont know, how will the second hand market react, dont know...all these things are a suck it and see scenario..not much you can do about that. Government should be leading by example in places in which it suits. The general public wont jump quickly if its not proven, regardless of R&D

2. There are a whole host of factors that effect battery life (way its charged, location, etc)..again to begin with these are issues that will just have to be played out. Nissan have a recycling plant etc..this is one of many reasons why historically the cars are only available through lease situations.

3. What heat issues? Make sure you are referencing current tech and not stuff from the 80's...EV's have been used successfully since the 1920's

4. Again, lease issue etc, no doubt it wont be cheap, but you dont strike me as the bloke to hold a car for that long anyway.

5. The Volt is a hybrid, dont let anyone tell you otherwise...GM try their best to get it classified as an EV because it uses electricity first and it can travel the "average distance of the average American" on a single charge. Cant remember the exact distance but similar to the Leaf...long story short SAE define it as a Hybrid. Usual GM marketing BS.

Im not saying I am going to buy one, but given the right circumstances I would. Sure the emissions are just passed to the generation point but many people these days can opt for green power or even produce it themselves at home to offset what the car uses.

Its not for everyone, but simply dismissing it is not correct. I will still take my coyote powered XR8 though

Its a better option than the iMiev (mistu thing) and Tesla Roadster for the majority.

RG · 28-11-2011, 07:40 PM

I've actually driven one and was quite impressed with it.

There's a thread here somewhere about it.

**Polyal** · 28-11-2011, 04:58 PM

Um I dont have time to relpy right now, but will get back to ya, in saying that historically EV's where on lease only anyway, so thats nothing new.

They are not problem free thats for sure, but they are not Satan's spawn like some suggest.

Dont get me wrong, im old school as they come, but moving forward options are good. I think the main beneficiaries from EV's would be CDB areas, potentially in the future if you want to live right in the center and own a car IMO EV should be the only choice. They already get favoured with certain aspects.

pottery beige · 28-11-2011, 05:07 PM

i'd rather walk....

BlueFG2 · 28-11-2011, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pottery beige

i'd rather walk....

Id rather crawl

Bossxr8 · 28-11-2011, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tomma101

Id rather crawl

over broken glass

Rodge · 28-11-2011, 05:06 PM

http://www.huret.com/overview.pdf

No probs Poyal, just whenever you have time. Just did a quick dig on google regarding aging problems for lithium-ion batteries and found this which for those who can't be bothered reviewing it talks about gradual power loss of the battery throughout its life down to circa 50% of its rated capacity.

hmmm, real world testers are showing the Leaf's range to be about 100 km's but how will people feel when they only do 50 km's later in the batteries life, as I said earlier, I see lawsuits a-plenty.

I'm starting to think the range extender option looks better, will be badged Holden Volt.

My gut feel, (as much as I like new things and latest technology), is it might be best to let others be the guniea pigs on this one.

Rodge · 28-11-2011, 05:24 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery

More stuff than you can shake a stick at regarding Wiki's details on the lithium-Ion battery. An efficient diesel as one's daily just looks better and better the more I look into this.

martinijosh · 28-11-2011, 05:29 PM

Battery life is about 7-10 years, after which they all need to be replaced (which costs a fortune) and are a huge environmental hazard.

Hybrids are stupid, full electric are even more stupid (for Australia) since a huge portion of our power relies on burning fossil fuels.

Yeah man, plug in electric mmaaan. Save the treees...

All well and good with hydro/solar/wind turbines/nuclear

With that mini rant over... I'd still have a tesla.

smoo · 28-11-2011, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rodge

An efficient diesel as one's daily just looks better and better the more I look into this.

Yep, you dont even need to fork out big bucks, spend 5 grand on a 2000ish Peugeot 406 hdi with bulletproof, proven mechanicals and average fuel economy of 5l/100km, can't go wrong. That's before you take into account the amount of resources and pollution needed to make a new car, if you really want to be 'green'

2011G6E · 28-11-2011, 06:08 PM

Buy a well-maintained second hand small Peugeot or VW Polo diesel...you'll have more room and flexibility with one of them.

If being green is important to you, then regarding electric cars (and hybrids in general) have a look on the net at the amazing lengths they have to go to to get the materials that make up the batteries and other parts of the system...things like digging up rare earth metals in remote parts of the world in filthy mining operations, shipping it around the world for processing, shipping it back to other countries to be made into batteries and things, and then on to the manufacturer.

Don't be fooled...they're overly-pricey hopeless little pus-buckets that are overwhelmed by a lot fo "normal" cars...remember the clever Ford advert from a short time ago about the Fiesta model that got better economy than the Prius?

"Zero emissions" is the biggest lie ever...it's called "tailpipe transfer"...it's no longer coming out the tailpipe of your car, it's coming out the smokestack of a power station somewhere. But hey...out of sight, out of mind...

BlueFG2 · 28-11-2011, 06:13 PM

If you are really that green you already take public transport and ride a bike, otherwise you are just a yuppy who has convinced himself that he is saving the earth.

Rodge · 29-11-2011, 07:55 AM

The more I look the less convinced I become. Yesterday I wasn't aware that GM's Volt is under investigation for fire resulting from the Volt being crash tested.
http://www.caradvice.com.au/145700/c...er-crash-test/
Check out the size of the Volt battery in that article.

CNBC reported this morning that in fact 2 of the 100 Volt's crash tested have now caught fire as the result of crash testing.

The heat issue, they do get really hot from what I've researched and the Volt for example has a special cooling system to keep thermal issues at bay, BUT it only takes one cell to go into thermal overload and... oh dear.

As noted by one member above, what about the replacement price of the batteries in 8-10 years, if a Prius or Honda Civic battery which is really tiny by comparison costs several thousand dollars, how much for these new high tech puppies ? If a Nissan Leaf is worth perhaps 20-25% of its original cost after say 8 - 10 years, which is normal for most cars, how would the owner feel about a $20,000 - $30,000, (pure guess on my part), asking price for a new battery ?

Finally lets have a look at how their running costs compare with other efficient vehicles.
Nissan N.Z. are saying it'll cost approx $7 for a full charge and most experts are saying that's good for circa 100 km's in the real world. On top of that countries will inevitably have some sort of road user charges, which at present in N.Z. are $4.70 per 100 km's for diesel vehicles, (fuel is not taxed at source), which will carry over to electric vehicles in June 2013, so after that date it'll cost approx $11.70 per 100 km's to run a Leaf in N.Z. and one will be asked to pay circa $60,000 for that privilidge.

hmmmm, how does that compare to the best of the current efficient vehicles ?

Cheap Petrol Vehicle :- $20,000 Suzuki Swift 5.5 litres per 100 km's ADR at current N.Z. fuel prices and assumming real world consumption of 6.5 litres per 100 km's = $13.10 per 100 km's
Cheap diesel vehicle :- Ford Fiesta Econetic approx $25,000 claimed economy 3.7 litres per 100 km's, real world assume 4.5 litres per 100 km's x $1.50 = $6.75 plus RUC $4.70 = $11.45 per 100 km's cheaper than the Leaf

Best of the current hybrid bunch Toyota Prius Hybrid circa $40,000, significantly cheaper than the Volt, claimed fuel use 3.9 litres per 100 km's (real world assume 5.0) = $10.20 per 100 km's, significantly cheaper than the leaf.

When you factor in replacement costs and environmental impact of the creation and disposal of hybrid batteries and especially in Australia the shifting emmissions from the tail-pipe to elsewhere issue, the environmental case seems hard to make and the real world operational efficiency of a small efficient petrol or diesel vehicle starts to look glaringly obvious.

Leaf is a nice concept and i'm sure when they're new and the battery is at 100% they would be fun to drive with 280 nm's of torque available from zero revs but oh dear, when you run the microscope over them I'm not convinced.

Lets get real about battery aging and how performance declines over time, how many of you have noticed that your, (rechargable toothbrush, cellphone, laptop, hand-held phone e.t.c.) doesn't perform the same after a couple of years in terms of its batteries performance, why would it be any different with a lithium-ion car battery and of course the answer is it wouldn't. Wikipedia's write-up for which I posted a link yesterday was referring too the decline in a lithium-ion's battery capacity to below 50% of its rated capacity after as few as 2 years !! So does that suggest the real world range of a Nissan Leaf at say the four year old point in its life could be well under half its original capacity of 100 km's ???

Crickey, and people talk about range anxiety when the vehicles are new !!

jpd80 · 29-11-2011, 08:24 AM

It depends on why people by this type of vehicle
1) high moral ground on environment - price and fuel savings are less important
2) savings in running costs - fleet operators

For the rest of us, i believe that cars like the very effcient and reasonably
priced TDCI Fiesta offer a better balance between price and fuel savings.

**Polyal** · 29-11-2011, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

It depends on why people by this type of vehicle
1) high moral ground on environment - price and fuel savings are less important
2) savings in running costs - fleet operators

For the rest of us, i believe that cars like the very effcient and reasonably
priced TDCI Fiesta offer a better balance between price and fuel savings.

In the short term I agree, it will have to be business and Govco taking up EV's mainstream to get infrastructure up to par aswell...heaps of considerations but its not the end of the world like some make it out to be.

RedHotGT · 29-11-2011, 09:50 AM

Interesting where the next evolution in automotive technology is going to go...

Will Hybrid's ever dig their heels into the market and make solid sales?
Is there 'really' potential for a mass produced battery powered vehicle in the future?
Is there 'really' potential for a mass produced air/water powered engines in the future?

The thing with technology is - anything is possible.

10 years ago if you had have explained the concept of an i-pad and wifi - it would have sounded like something from a sci/fi film...

20 years ago if you had have explained the concept of a hybrid car that shares both petrol and battery power - again it would have been met with blank looks

30 years ago if you had have explained that you were going to be able to sit in your loungeroom and play a simulated war game with people all around the world for hours on end (read: COD3) they would have said it will never happen...

I could go on and on...

SO - will these cars ever come to be? Maybe. If there is money to be made in manufacturing them, and perceived savings for a buyer - particularly in the long term - then maybe they will work...

Will it happen overnight? No... But it may just happen...

The old petrol powered carby/pushrod engines of yesteryear will still exist, but each year more will succumb to the scrapheap/garage...

Why can't us 'oldies' embrace progress like the youngsters do?
Is it because we are too skeptical? Is it because we're nostalgic?
Or is it because if it ain't broke - don't fix it??

Who knows what the answer is? But watching it unfold will be very interesting...

OK - I'm done...

irish2 · 30-11-2011, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loftie

Interesting where the next evolution in automotive technology is going to go...

The thing with technology is - anything is possible.

10 years ago if you had have explained the concept of an i-pad and wifi - it would have sounded like something from a sci/fi film...

20 years ago if you had have explained the concept of a hybrid car that shares both petrol and battery power - again it would have been met with blank looks

30 years ago if you had have explained that you were going to be able to sit in your loungeroom and play a simulated war game with people all around the world for hours on end (read: COD3) they would have said it will never happen...

Mate 10 years ago the HP TC 1100 was around. It bore the same dimensions and touch screen capability of the iPad, it even had more power.

Over 30 years ago the first hybrid cars were being built.

Electric vehicles have been on the radar for a long time and the simple fact is petroleum is still the cheapest and simplest fuel source available.

2011G6E · 30-11-2011, 02:38 PM

"Peak oil" is a bit of a misnomer as well...it implies, or is meant to imply, that oil is running out. It isn't. It's still being discovered in vast quantities in various places around the world, and some countries have plenty in reserve but artificially control supply by restricting production.
Oil reserves are an unknown, but will last a very long time yet. If a decent way of producing a biofuel to "water it down" is brought on line in economically viable ways...probably using farmed bacteria if promising research is anything to go by instead of covering massive areas of food-producing land with corn...it will last even longer.

In the seventies they said fuel was running out, in the early eighties I saw motoring books looking to the future (I have one by Peter Wherrit) saying that around the year 2000 oil would be "virtually all gone" and electric cars would be the commonest form of transport.

Unless the government grows a pair and we go nuclear, electricity on a wide scale to suit our vast country will be coal produced, with some gas fired as well. Solar is an expensive pipe-dream for anything but individual house use, wind power has it's knockers as well and is unreliable, tidal and hydro have the greenies up in arms whenever a project is mentioned, and all of them share the same problem that you can't reliably store electricity...it has to be produced pretty much as needed, on demand, and for base-load needs such as when everyone turns on the power at 6pm at night.
There's no easy answers, there's no magic bullet, and fusion power is still a long way off, so we have to make best with what we have and use it efficiently.

I just took the missus over to Blackwater in the G6E...the daughter in law and grandson were in the back as well, it's nearly 40 degrees here and there at the moment, stinking hot, we had the air con going and cruise control set on 103kph. The trip computer said we were returning about 7.5 ltr/100km. If you'd have walked up to an 18 year old me back in 1983 with my 270hp Valiant Charger that burned $50+ of super a week when it was 36 cents a liter, and told me that in the second decade of the 21st century I would own a big Australian made sedan with a 4 liter straight six that produced 270hp and returned nearly 38mpg when driven even reasonably carefully, I'd have laughed in your face.

jpd80 · 30-11-2011, 03:06 PM

Plenty of oil remains, the source and feasibility changes with increasing price.

bobthebilda · 30-11-2011, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

"Peak oil" is a bit of a misnomer as well...it implies, or is meant to imply, that oil is running out. It isn't. It's still being discovered in vast quantities in various places around the world, and some countries have plenty in reserve but artificially control supply by restricting production.
.

Peak oil doesnt imply that oil is running out. If you think about it logically, oil started running out, when they first started using it. Peak oil implies that the maximum rate of extraction has occurred. Most energy observers suspect that peak oil was reached in 2005 (oil production has continued to rise over the last 6 years, but that increase has been due to the extraction of non traditional oils such as tar sands etc).

Oil will never run out, for the mere fact that even the best wells in the world dont extract the last 30% of oil etc. The biggest issue that we face in the near future, is the energy required to extract the oil that we get. Even the second largest producer in the world (saudia arabia), has to pump 2 barrels of seawater into their wells (to maintain oil uplift), to extract 1 barrel of oil. This now results in saudi's getting a mix of 30% water / 70% crude coming out of the well. This then needs to be seperated to make 100% crude oil. The saudis now pump out 9 million barrels a day, but use 3.5 million on its own use, leaving 5.5 million for export. Theres a great risk that in 10 years from now, the saudis ( and alot of oil exporters) might still be producing 9 million barrels a year, but they need the 9 million barrels to satisfy their own needs and to use it to extract more oil. Why would a saudi sell a barrel of oil that would provide heat (or travel or electricity) for weeks, if (in exchange) they got 10 x $100 notes that only provided heat for a minute when burnt.